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Getting to 2100

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Malaysia: The Spice Islands

Rex

The Straits of Malacca (pirates!). Tropical seas and jungles. That is so yesteryear!

Today, Malaysia is in the center of the most dynamic economy in the world–Chindia. With over 3 billion people and a growing middle class, Chindia is wrestling with reconciling the twin objectives of raising average incomes while protecting and restoring the environment. Penang itself is a bustling center of international high technology companies and high rises alongside the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Georgetown (where Jimmy Choo got his start!).
Through First Stop Portland, I was invited by the World Bank to join a forum on Greening Urban Growth in Penang, Malaysia. Among the 50 or so participants were elected leaders from Korea, Vietnam, China, India, Malaysia and the Philippines along with top World Bank economists as well as planners from as far away as Spain and as close as Singapore. Such a diverse group reflected the global economy as well as the long history of Malaysia in world trade with its own population mix of Malay, Chinese, Indian and Europeans.

The story of Asia’s incredible rise from devastation, war and poverty to economic superpower is as well known as the stories of horrifying pollution and destroyed ecologies.  But there is a remarkable transformation underway. This forum was organized by The Growth Dialogue (USA) and Think City (Malaysia)  and supported by the sovereign wealth fund of Malaysia, Khazana Nasional, in order to describe and define a “New Model” of economic/ecologic development.

Andrew ShenAndrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, Hong Kong, summarized the issues this way:

  1. The first “great transformation” –an unrepeatable bonanza created by capitalist institutions and methods combined with fossil fuels
  2. Spreading worldwide and driven by Chindia, incredible growth in incomes. There will be 6 billion mid-income, urban people by 2050, up from 1 billion in 2000.
  3. Western model of industrial capitalism cannot “scale” to meet needs of 6 billion middle class consumers, so we need a new model of growth.
  4. This new model is being developed, particularly by China, emulated by India and Brazil.
  5. “New Model” is based on changes to:
    1. Energy Markets—renewables the default option
    2. Resources/commodities re-circulated (Circular Economy)
    3. Finance: from generic to targeted eco-finance

This is a green development model, which is likely to expand through “green shoots” propagating within the existing system. He sees it as an uncontrolled social experiment. Whether it will succeed is uncertain but there are cautious grounds for optimism, according to Mr Sheng.

Let me illustrate with the story told by Joo Bon-Hyeon, former vice-Mayor of Ulsan, South Korea. Ulsan was the miracle city. A seaside swamp 50 years ago, it became the center of the Korean chemical and petroleum industries and a major city. Along the way, it also became so polluted that only those desperate enough for the jobs there would live there. The river was empty of life and dangerously contaminated and the air noxious to breathe. In the past ten years, the City committed to changing this, recognizing that the heedless charge to make money was destroying the very ability to live. Cleaning up the water and air became the number one priority of Ulsan and after just ten years there are fish in the river and people are moving back. Part of this effort was finding uses for the industrial byproducts that were once just dumped—what Sheng referred to as the Circular Economy.

In the classic First Stop Portland way, based on my visit, Abdul Hamdan of Think City, a project of the Khazanah Nasional fund, visited Portland at the end of April, 2012 as part of an Eisenhower Exchange Fellowship. I hope to see many other participants in the coming years as there is a lot of interest in Portland’s story, even on the shores of the Andaman Sea!

About Gettingto2100

Why Getting to 2100? The next century will be a test: can humans use their intelligence and foresight to successfully transition from our consumption-fueled economy to one that balances the needs of humans with the Earth’s available resources. Getting to 2100 aims to be a forum for sharing of good ideas and good works. Got a good example or a new idea? Share it with the world!

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